Examining the Risk of COVID-19 with Erich Lin: EMP Podcast 45
00:00 – Intro
04:47 – Not the Flu
09:14 – Observations and Impact
14:57 – Distributions Explained
22:55 – The Precautionary Principle
31:23 – Second Order Effects
43:21 – Prospect Theory
52:49 – Normalcy Bias and Fear
01:02:35 – Engaging Anomalies
01:09:49 – Prudent Action
01:13:18 – Outro
The coronavirus pandemic is bringing the world to a grinding halt. Countries and states are going into complete lock down, nonessential businesses are being forcibly closed, millions are losing their jobs and the economy is in a tailspin.
The virus is trending exponentially, exactly as the experts predicted. Hospitals in China, Italy, Spain and the US are at or beyond capacity and many are saying that this is just the beginning of a months long battle.
Even in the face of this global catastrophe, where billion dollar corporations are shutting down and entire countries are imposing strict quarantine measures, there are still people that are not taking the issue seriously who don’t seem to understand the importance of prudent and immediate action.
So on today’s episode of the Evolve Move Play Podcast, we’ve brought Erich Lin back to talk in depth about the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to help us and others understand some of the mathematical concepts that are at play with such an uncertain and multiplicative event.
The fact is that the only way to curtail the massive impact of this virus is to take extreme measures in social distancing and isolation until a vaccine is developed.
We’ve been told for decades that there’s nothing to fear but fear itself, and in times like this, that sentiment is wildly inappropriate.
Fear is a vital function of all living organisms; it is a friend that keeps us safe and helps us live long and healthy lives, but it’s important that we handle our fear with a strong sense of rationality.
Irrational and panic driven actions such as hoarding or mass buying are terrible and only exacerbate the situation, but so does the opposite reaction of willful ignorance. Assuming there’s no real threat and continuing life as usual not only exposes you to danger, but every person you interact with, and every person they interact with, and so on.
So please watch this episode and share it with others. Understand the role you play in keeping your community safe and healthy, and take prudent action to ensure that this doesn’t evolve into a worse case scenario.
Thanks everyone, stay safe out there.
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